A Bayesian-network approach for assessing the probability of success of physical security attacks to offshore Oil&Gas facilities

Offshore Oil&Gas facilities are attractive targets of intentional malicious attacks (security attacks) that may trigger cascading events (e.g., the release and dispersion hazardous material and/or energy, fires, explosions) with consequences on people, environment, assets. The severity these is potentially similar to those arising from major accident scenarios originated by conventional safety-related causes. Current practice in managing risk security mostly relies qualitative or semi-quantitative procedures developed over years offshore industry. In present study, a systematic quantitative procedure developed, based Bayesian Network (BN) approach, for calculating probability success physical attacks, taking into account both preventive mitigative intervention strategies. addresses specific framework A case study concerning an fixed platform allowed us demonstrate quality results can be achieved their potential towards improvement installations considered.